Should I buy BP stock in 2025? Expert guide for UK investors

Why trust HelloSafe ?

At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking BP's performance for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in the UK trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes and do not constitute investment recommendations. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by BP.

What is BP?

The BP stock price

The price of BP stock is rising this week. The current share price is $31.30, up $0.80 (+2.62%) over the last 24 hours and showing a 3.23% increase over the past week. BP boasts a market capitalisation of $81.2 billion and sees an average three-month trading volume of 11.83 million shares. The company’s P/E ratio is currently negative, yet the dividend yield remains strong at 6.41%. With a stock beta of 0.39, BP offers moderate volatility and attractive income potential for UK investors.

Our full analysis of BP stock

In our latest review of BP's financial performance and stock trajectory over the past three years, we have synthesised comprehensive market data, technical indicators, sector developments, and competitive trends through our proprietary analytical models. This approach provides deep perspective on BP's evolving strategic position and its outlook relative to industry peers. So, why might BP stock once again become a strategic entry point into the energy sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

BP shares have notably rebounded in recent months, with the current price at $31.30 reflecting a weekly gain of 3.23% and a daily increase of 2.62%. After a challenging 2024, marked by sliding energy prices and sector volatility, BP has shown resilience, stabilising near the upper end of its $25.22–$37.39 range. Its market capitalisation of $81.2 billion reaffirms BP’s status as a sector heavyweight, drawing investor confidence even amid global uncertainty.

Recent positive catalysts include robust Q1 2025 earnings, with underlying profits up to $1.4 billion, and a generous dividend yield of 6.41% ($1.92 annual payout). The company's $750 million buyback programme, consistent capital expenditure, and a return to operational cash flow strength ($2.8 billion in Q1) highlight both management discipline and shareholder focus. Sustainable energy investments, coupled with a disciplined transition plan under CEO Murray Auchincloss, underpin BP’s commitment to long-term value creation. Broadly, stabilising commodities and gradual recovery in global demand set a favourable macro backdrop, increasing the appeal of diversified energy plays like BP.

Technical analysis

Technically, BP stock displays several encouraging features for prospective buyers. The stock boasts a “strong buy” consensus in technical ratings and reflects upward momentum across all major moving averages:

• 20-day: $30.42 (Buy)
• 50-day: $29.45 (Buy)
• 100-day: $30.50 (Buy)
• 200-day: $30.00 (Buy)

The RSI sits at 60.11, indicating healthy, but not overstretched, momentum, while the MACD at 0.30 confirms an ongoing bullish trend. These signals are further supported by the stock holding well above key support zones ($30.07–$30.25), with an immediate upside target at $31.58 and medium-term resistance in the $35 range. Such a setup points to an environment where positive news or sector tailwinds could rapidly extend the current gains. Importantly, the beta of 0.39 underlines BP’s relative defensiveness—a key consideration for investors focused on risk-adjusted returns during market rotations.

Fundamental analysis

BP's core financials are reasserting strength. Full-year 2024 revenues are estimated at $211 billion, making BP one of the largest global energy players. Q1 2025 results outperformed consensus, with an uptick in underlying profits and recovery in operational cash flow, reassuring investors of solid management execution. Although the current P/E ratio is negative due to challenges in trailing earnings, forward-looking projections suggest reversion to profitability as the cycle normalises.

What stands out is BP’s capital return profile—a sustained annual dividend yield of 6.41% places BP at the top end of its peer group, even against volatile sector backdrops. Further, the company has balanced long-term investment (2025 capex: ~$14.5 billion) with aggressive deleveraging (targeting net debt of $14–18 billion by 2027), aiming for stability and optionality in evolving markets.

Strategically, BP’s integrated business model blends upstream oil and gas, downstream refining, and rapidly scaling ventures in renewables and low-carbon technology. This portfolio approach gives BP a diversified income base and agility in navigating both traditional and green energy cycles. Brand recognition, global footprint, and transactional scale further solidify the company’s market leadership.

Volume and liquidity

An average daily traded volume of 11.83 million shares over three months underpins BP’s high liquidity and rapid price discovery, a quality sought by both institutional and private investors. The extensive float and cross-listing on major global exchanges foster deep pools of capital and allow BP’s valuation to adjust dynamically to market developments. Evidence of ongoing buy-side interest is further seen in robust flows around ex-dividend periods and company announcements—clear signals of investor confidence in BP’s outlook.

Catalysts and positive outlook

BP is equipped with a range of tangible catalysts poised to drive future performance:

• Resilient capital returns: Continuation of a progressive dividend policy and significant buybacks, rewarding patient shareholders with direct income and incremental capital appreciation.
• Strategic reset: CEO Auchincloss’s focus on refocusing legacy oil/gas businesses, streamlining operations, and investing in transition-oriented projects (biofuels, hydrogen, renewables).
• M&A optionality and industry consolidation: Recent takeover rumours, including widespread speculation around Shell’s interest, highlight how BP’s current valuation places it at the centre of sector consolidation—potentially setting the stage for value-creating deals.
• Discipline in capital allocation: BP’s clearly signalled intent to reduce debt, maintain a robust balance sheet, and selectively allocate growth capex, ensures operational flexibility.
• Green energy transformation: Ambitious investments in renewables and low-carbon energy offer upside optionality as policy frameworks and consumer preferences accelerate the transition.
• Macro tailwinds: Rising commodity prices, improving global mobility/demand, and a renewed policy emphasis on energy security further support BP’s financial stability and price appreciation prospects.

The synergy of these forces, coupled with proven earnings recovery, makes BP a standout, especially when compared with sector peers experiencing restructuring headwinds or uncertain payout trajectories.

Investment strategies

BP’s current setup is attractive for investors across time horizons:

• Short-term: Technical signals—MACD, RSI and strong moving averages—all align with a positive bias. Traders may find low-risk entry at current support levels ($30.07–$30.25), with well-defined resistance near term. Timely event-driven trading around dividend declarations or earnings releases provides further tactical opportunities.
• Medium-term: Investors seeking both yield and exposure to sector rotation can find BP ideal, as its strong capital return policies and exposure to recovering global demand offer superior total return potential. The stock benefits from robust volumes, visible buybacks, and improving financial stability.
• Long-term: Those with a patient horizon may see BP’s transformation strategy, sizeable cash generation, and ramp-up in renewables investment as a pathway to sustained value creation. Management’s focus on deleveraging and a progressive payout culture supports long-term capital preservation and growth.

An optimal entry could be executed at technical inflection points or in advance of major corporate updates, such as next quarter earnings or transition-related capital allocation news.

Is it the right time to buy BP?

Synthesising the evidence, BP stands distinguished for its resilient franchise, compelling capital return, and renewed strategic clarity amid a transitioning sector. The company’s strong dividend yield, robust cash generation, diversified business mix, and significant ESG investments collectively reinforce the case for renewed optimism. While past earnings volatility is reflected in the current negative P/E, forward guidance and operating performance suggest a turning point is at hand.

BP seems to represent an excellent opportunity for those seeking robust income, sector stability, and strategic transformation upside as energy markets recover and evolve. Both the technical backdrop and the fundamental profile justify new interest—and with liquidity and momentum on its side, BP may be entering a new bullish phase.

BP remains a strongly positioned stock, offering an ideal blend of reliable yield, structural resilience, and future-facing growth—all within a defensively postured blue chip. For investors looking towards sustainable long-term value and capital security, BP’s recent performance and forward outlook suggest that the momentum could be just beginning.

How to buy BP stock in the United Kingdom?

Buying BP stock online is simple and secure when using a regulated UK broker. You have two main choices: buy BP shares outright to become a shareholder (spot buying), or use Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to trade the price movements with leverage, without owning the shares. Each method has its specific features, risks, and rewards. You’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down the page to help you choose the right platform.

Spot buying

A cash purchase means you buy BP shares directly and become a full legal shareholder. Most major UK brokers charge a fixed commission per order, typically between £4 and £10.

Gain Scenario

If the BP share price is $31.30, you can buy about 31 shares with a $1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around $5.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100. Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs let you speculate on BP’s share price without owning the stock itself, using leverage to amplify your potential gains or losses. With CFDs, you pay a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and overnight financing fees if you hold positions beyond a day.

Gain scenario

You open a CFD position on BP shares with 5x leverage and a $1,000 deposit.

This gives you market exposure of $5,000.

If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain, on a bet of $1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Always compare brokers’ fees, spreads, and trading policies before investing, as these can impact your returns. The best approach—spot buying or CFD trading—depends on your financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. A comprehensive broker comparison is available further down the page to support your decision.

Our 7 tips for buying BP stock

The latest news about BP

BP shares advance 2.62% in the past trading session, extending a positive weekly trend. On 3 July 2025, BP closed at $31.30, driven by renewed optimism in the energy sector. This uptick translates to a 3.23% gain on the week, supported by higher trading volumes and a series of technical “buy” signals on major moving averages. Positive momentum in BP shares reflects both investor confidence and robust UK market participation.

BP delivers resilient Q1 2025 results, with underlying profit surpassing $1.4 billion. The company’s latest financials highlight a strong operational recovery versus Q4 2024, when underlying profits stood at $1.2 billion. Cash flow from operations reached $2.8 billion, and BP executed $750 million in share buybacks, underlining its commitment to capital returns for UK shareholders. These results point to sound fundamentals and disciplined financial management.

Dividend yield remains attractive for UK investors, with upcoming payouts confirmed. BP has reaffirmed its annual dividend at $1.92 per share, corresponding to a healthy 6.41% yield. UK-based investors benefit from a stable and consistent dividend stream, with the most recent ex-dividend date on 16 May 2025 and quarterly distribution policy maintained. This income reliability stands out in the FTSE 100 landscape.

Technical indicators signal continued buying interest and moderate near-term upside. Key technical metrics place BP above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, with the RSI showing neutral territory at 60.11 and the MACD delivering a “buy” signal. The current technical consensus is “Strong Buy”, providing traders and investors in the UK with favourable entry and holding conditions.

Strategic reset under new leadership supports long-term competitiveness in UK energy markets. BP’s ongoing transformation, led by CEO Murray Auchincloss, emphasises upstream growth, disciplined capital investment, and a targeted deleveraging plan. These strategic initiatives reinforce BP’s role as an integrated energy leader in the UK, positioning it well to capture new opportunities as the market transitions towards energy diversification and lower emissions.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.