Should I buy Tesco stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking the performance of Tesco for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in the UK trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by Tesco.

What is Tesco?

*Estimate based on consensus and historical ratios.

Tesco Share Price

The price of Tesco stock is rising this week. As of now, Tesco trades at 402.30 GBX per share, up 6.50 GBX (+1.64%) over the last 24 hours and showing a weekly increase of 3.08%. Tesco’s market capitalisation stands at £26.99 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 22.87 million shares. The P/E ratio is 17.48, the dividend yield is 3.41%, and its stock beta is 0.62, indicating moderate volatility. This solid performance highlights Tesco’s ongoing momentum and potential for investors seeking stability and growth.

Our full analysis of Tesco stock

Having carefully reviewed Tesco’s most recent financial statements, as well as its stock performance over the past three years, we have applied proprietary algorithms to cross-compare a wide range of market data, technical signals, and sectoral benchmarks. This holistic approach, drawing from both independent and institutional sources, ensures a thorough and objective assessment of the company’s investment prospects. So, why might Tesco stock once again become a strategic entry point into the UK consumer and technology sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

Tesco stock has demonstrated robust upward momentum, rising 32.15% over the past twelve months and gaining an additional 7.98% in the prior six months. Most recently, the stock trades at 402.30 GBX, with a healthy 1.64% 24-hour increase and a positive weekly change of 3.08%. This performance reflects renewed market confidence following the company’s impressive FY2024/25 results, which delivered a revenue of £69.92 billion and a 10.6% rise in adjusted operating profit—both surpassing consensus expectations.

The sector’s context is also highly favourable: Tesco continues to benefit from a resilient UK grocery market, which is set to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% through 2029, and from a relentless focus on operational execution even in intensely competitive conditions. Notable catalysts include its record 28.3% UK market share, the highest since 2016, and 24 consecutive four-week periods of share gains. This combination of strong company performance and a constructive macroeconomic background sets the stage for renewed growth in shareholder value.

Technical analysis

Technical indicators reinforce Tesco’s appeal for bullish positioning. The RSI (14 days) hovers in the neutral 51-54 range, confirming that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold and that further upside is possible. The MACD is sending mixed signals but remains near the upper end of its range, in line with overall upward momentum in price action. Moving averages are particularly encouraging: the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages are all trending higher and converging with the current price, while the 200-day sits at a solid support level of 357-397 GBX.

Key support levels—most notably the 395-399 GBX band—have been successfully defended throughout recent volatility, further enhancing the technical base for a bullish reversal. Meanwhile, resistance in the 409-415 GBX range presents an achievable next target. With nine moving averages providing “buy” signals versus just three on “sell,” the overall technical context points toward ongoing strength and improving short- to mid-term outlook.

Fundamental analysis

On a fundamental basis, Tesco’s case for renewed interest is exceptionally compelling. The company reported £69.92 billion in sales for fiscal 2024/25, suggesting a healthy annual sales growth rate of 3.5% despite retailer margin pressures across the sector. Even more impressive was an adjusted operating profit up 10.6% year-over-year, comfortably ahead of expectations. Tesco’s P/E ratio remains attractive at 17.48—implying the stock trades at a modest premium to sector averages but well below the historic highs of global consumer staples leaders. Its dividend yield of 3.41% further sweetens Tesco’s investment appeal, offering a recurring source of income in addition to capital gains potential.

The company’s robust and expanding market position is anchored by three structural strengths:

• Leadership in UK grocery and growing presence in Europe's central markets.
• An extensive, technology-oriented retail network—the leader with a 35% UK online market share.
• A proven ability to innovate, respond rapidly to changing consumer needs, and manage costs effectively, as seen by strong cash flows and an efficient operating model.

These factors are further complemented by strategic initiatives (e.g., digital-first approaches, targeted international expansion, vertical integration along the supply chain) that lay the groundwork for sustainable future growth.

Volume and liquidity

Tesco shares are among the FTSE 100’s most actively traded, with a daily average volume of 22.87 million shares over the past three months. This vigorous liquidity not only minimises spreads but also fosters healthy price discovery and provides confidence for both institutional and retail investors to enter or exit positions at scale. The free float remains substantial, promoting dynamic valuation shifts in response to evolving market trends and enhancing Tesco’s defensive appeal in periods of broader equity volatility.

A strong trading volume, particularly amid rising prices, is often a clear sign of conviction among market participants and points to enduring investor appetite.

Catalysts and positive outlook

Looking ahead, multiple catalysts reinforce Tesco’s positive trajectory:

• Powerful innovation momentum, with the company investing aggressively in technology, automation, and e-commerce infrastructure—the latter now accounting for 35% of the online UK grocery market.
• Continuous launches of new own-label and premium products, addressing evolving consumption patterns and expanding profit margins.
• Expansion into Central Europe, positioning Tesco to benefit from growth in underpenetrated markets.
• Commitment to ESG initiatives, including carbon reduction, sustainable sourcing, and a visible role in social responsibility, which increasingly influence institutional flows.
• Favourable regulatory and consumption trends in the UK grocery sector, combined with the company’s unmatched scale and supply chain resilience, position Tesco to outperform peers in the years ahead.

Recent quarterly results illustrate momentum: an accelerating pace of UK sales growth and enhanced market share, even as competitors pull back in the face of heightened competition.

Investment strategies

Investors seeking buy-side opportunities will find compelling reasons across the short, medium, and long term:

• Short term:
• Bullish momentum identified by both technical and market signals suggests upside potential in the coming months, especially as key resistance levels approach. Traders might look for entries on mild pullbacks near support, targeting the 409-415 GBX resistance and taking advantage of continued strong volume.
• Medium term:
• Holding over the next few quarterly updates appears promising, as scheduled catalysts like earnings releases and product launches can drive re-ratings in valuation. Tesco’s expanding profit margin and stable dividend make it a strong candidate for a core portfolio holding.
• Long term:
• For investors focusing on secular trends, Tesco stands to benefit as the leading digital innovator and sustainability champion in UK retail. Its brand value, network depth and robust cash flow generation provide a solid underpinning for compounding returns and dividend growth.

Positioning in Tesco at current levels may represent an excellent opportunity ahead of potential macro or industry catalysts—especially with market sentiment shifting and the company’s competitive strengths becoming more visible.

Is it the right time to buy Tesco?

In summary, Tesco boasts a rare combination of market leadership, innovative strength, financial resilience, and attractive valuation. The stock currently trades at a technically and fundamentally justified level, supported by sustained volume, defensive characteristics, and positive external trends. The fundamentals justify renewed institutional and retail interest, while multiple technical and strategic catalysts point to a new bullish phase.

With robust cash flows, a compelling dividend yield, and clear upward momentum, Tesco seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking quality exposure in a sector undergoing lasting transformation. Whether seeking short-term movement or long-term value, the evidence suggests Tesco is well positioned for the next stage of growth and should be seriously considered for any diversified portfolio focused on sustainable returns and future upside.

How to buy Tesco stock?

Buying Tesco stock online is simple and secure, especially when using a regulated UK broker. The two main ways to invest are by purchasing Tesco shares outright (spot buying) or trading via CFDs (Contracts for Difference). Spot buying involves owning the shares directly, while CFDs allow you to speculate on price movements with leverage—each method suits different profiles and objectives. To find the best platform for your needs, check out our upcoming broker comparison further down this page.

Spot buying

A cash or spot purchase of Tesco stock means you directly own the shares, with full rights to dividends and voting. Typically, you pay a fixed commission per order, usually around £5 to £10 with most UK brokers.

Gain scenario with Tesco shares

If the Tesco share price is 402 GBX (about £4.02), you can buy around 248 shares with a £1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around £5.

✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth £1,100.
Result: +£100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading on Tesco shares lets you speculate on price changes without owning the actual shares. With CFDs, fees include the spread (difference between buy and sell price) and overnight financing if you hold positions for more than a day. CFDs also allow leverage, increasing both potential gains and risks.

CFD Gain Scenario with Leverage

You open a CFD position on Tesco shares, with 5x leverage. This gives you a market exposure of £5,000 for a £1,000 stake.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +£400 gain, on a bet of £1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, always compare the fees, tradable markets, and service conditions of different brokers, as these factors can affect your long-term returns. Your choice between spot buying and CFDs should reflect your investment goals and risk tolerance. For more details, don’t miss our broker comparison table featured further down the page.

7 tips for buying Tesco stock

The latest news about Tesco

Tesco shares rise more than 3% over the past week, outpacing the FTSE 100. This positive momentum reflects growing investor confidence in Tesco’s ability to capitalise on its market positioning and resilient performance in the UK grocery sector.

Tesco achieves its highest UK market share since 2016, reaching 28.3% this week. The company’s continued gains across 24 consecutive four-week periods underscore its competitive edge and sustained customer loyalty amidst a challenging retail environment.

Technical analysis shows a strong buy signal for Tesco, based on multiple moving averages. Nine key moving averages currently indicate an upward trend, confirming positive sentiment among market participants and supporting bullish forecasts in the short term.

Tesco posts solid first quarter results, accelerating sales growth in the UK home market. The latest quarterly update revealed revenue and operating profit outperforming analyst expectations, with management highlighting successful online strategies and value initiatives.

Analyst consensus price target is revised upwards to 407 GBX with optimism for sustainable growth. The new price target reflects anticipated benefits from strategic innovation and Tesco’s robust fundamentals as the UK grocery market continues to expand.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.