Should You Buy Four in 2025?

Why trust HelloSafe?

At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the evolution of the Four cryptocurrency for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users across the UK rely on us to analyse market trends and pinpoint the best investment opportunities. Our insights are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, HelloSafe has never purchased Four nor received any remuneration from entities linked to its ecosystem.

Oven at a glance

How much does an oven cost?

The price of Four is up this week. Currently trading at £73.85, Four has seen a positive 0.22% change over the past 24 hours, while the weekly performance has dipped slightly by 0.41%.

With a market capitalisation of approximately £6.53 billion, the average daily trading volume for the past three months sits around 1.98 million units.

Four ranks 55th by market cap, and its circulating supply is estimated at 88.62 million. Representing a 0.38% share of the overall crypto market, Four offers both volatility and upside potential, making it a notable option for UK investors seeking exposure to innovative payment assets.

Our complete review of the Four cryptocurrency

After analysing the latest trends for Four, as well as its evolution over the past three years, our team combined multiple layers of analysis—from on-chain indicators and technical signals to advanced market data and an in-depth review of the competitive landscape—using proprietary algorithms. The convergence of these multidimensional insights points to a dynamic scenario for Four as we approach 2025. So, why could Four once again represent a strategic entry point within the fintech and digital payments ecosystem?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Price Evolution and Volatility

Over the last year, Four (NYSE: FOUR) has exhibited a robust recovery, with its current price at $94.40 USD—up by 35.40% over twelve months and demonstrating a high beta of 1.82, indicative of significant volatility and market sensitivity. After reaching a 52-week high of $127.50 and a low of $57.45, the asset has clearly outperformed many sector peers during crypto’s broader risk-on resurgence, yet still trades notably below its all-time highs, suggesting a pocket of relative value for forward-looking investors.

Although YTD performance stands at -9.04%, this is largely explained by sector rotation and macro headwinds in early 2025 that affected most payment technology providers. Short-term consolidation beneath key resistance levels is now coinciding with renewed market appetite for high-growth, profitable fintechs—especially those with proven scalability.

Recent Positive Catalysts

• Leadership Transition: The appointment of Taylor Lauber as CEO (effective June 2025), coupled with founder Jared Isaacman’s transition to Executive Chairman, signals ongoing strategic vision and operational continuity within the C-suite, a critical factor for investor confidence as Shift4 scales into new global verticals.
• Global Blue Acquisition: The ongoing acquisition of Global Blue (expected to complete Q3 2025) exponentially expands Four's footprint into European luxury retail payments and tax-free shopping, introducing substantial new revenue streams and reinforcing its global ambitions.
• Strong Operational Metrics: Q1 2025 results highlighted 19.9% YoY revenue growth and a best-in-class EPS beat (+53.69% vs. consensus expectations), alongside an impressive YoY payment volume increase of 35%, to $45 billion. Such metrics underscore both robust organic momentum and the transformational impact of recent strategic investments.

Macro and Sectoral Tailwinds

• Ongoing digitalisation of commerce and payments across B2C/B2B globally.
• Acceleration in cross-border retail flows, especially in European markets—crucial for Four’s Global Blue integration.
• Increased investor demand for tech-driven payment solutions with strong operational leverage.

Combined, these forces position quality fintech assets like Four to benefit disproportionately from the next cyclical upturn in the sector.

Technical Analysis

Key On-Chain and Momentum Signals

• RSI (14-day) at 62.63: Four’s RSI hovers just below overbought territory, highlighting healthy but not exhaustive buying interest. This scenario often prefigures further capital rotation into the asset should bullish catalysts materialise.
• MACD (12,26,9) at 2.62 – Near-term Caution, Building Base: While currently a sell signal, this must be balanced against the asset’s broader positive trend, and the fact that periods of brief consolidation are a hallmark of higher-beta growth names post-earnings rally.
• 20-day and 50-day SMA (Buy Signals): Four currently trades well above its 20-day ($90.83) and 50-day ($84.63) SMAs, reflecting ongoing short-term momentum and confirming a near-term bullish regime.
• 100/200-day SMA (Sell/Neutral Signals): Trading below the 100-day ($94.34) and 200-day ($94.42) SMAs suggests mid-term consolidation, typically a prerequisite to renewed upside after periods of extended rally.

Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: Strong structural support at $84.77
• Resistance: Immediate barrier at $100.09, with major resistance at $105.39

With price compressing between rising supports and technical resistance, the setup appears primed for a breakout—especially when combined with fundamental catalysts on the horizon.

Short- to Mid-term Structure

• Momentum is building: Short-term trend and support signals underscore accumulating market interest.
• Positioning for trend continuation: The technical setup, coupled with evolving leadership and strategic M&A, provides an ideal pretext for accumulation ahead of anticipated breakout events.

Fundamental Analysis

Adoption, Partnerships and Ecosystem Traction

• Growth Narrative: Four is now a global leader in integrated payments, with strong business traction in the US and aggressive push into Europe through the Global Blue transaction.
• Institutional Buy-in: High institutional ownership and significant flows into the stock, as evidenced by its robust average trading volume (>1.9 million shares daily), highlight confidence from professional money managers.
• Innovation Leadership: Continual improvements to the core platform, with a strong focus on omni-channel, cloud-based solutions, drive competitive advantage and increase the total addressable market.

Attractive Relative Valuation

• Market Cap ($8.37bn) vs. Peers: Four remains attractively valued relative to projected earnings (forward P/E of 16.4) and revenue multiples, especially considering the sector’s average P/E is significantly higher for similar growth rates.
• No Dividend Policy: The absence of a dividend reflects a high-reinvestment model typical of disruptive innovators—often a positive sign for those seeking capital appreciation, not yield.
• High Cash Reserves ($1.17bn): Ample cash provides strategic flexibility for further expansion or opportunistic buybacks.

Structural Differentiation

• Technology Edge: Four’s proprietary platform, which provides seamless omni-channel commerce and payments integration, places it ahead of legacy rivals and enables rapid ecosystem expansion.
• Community and Market Leadership: High engagement from developers, merchants, and institutional partners, catalysed by visible leadership and strategic M&A, strengthens network effects.

Volume and Liquidity

• Elevated Trading Volumes: Consistently high daily volumes signal deep liquidity, reducing entry/exit overhead for both institutional and retail investors.
• Dominance in High-Growth Verticals: Four’s focus on high-momentum subsectors—luxury retail, cross-border commerce, e-Commerce—positions it as a “category winner” within the listed payments universe.

Positive Catalysts and Forward Drivers

• Completion of the Global Blue Deal: Closing expected in Q3 2025 could unlock revenue synergies far beyond initial estimates and anchor Shift4 as a “must-own” gateway to European luxury payment corridors.
• Technology Upgrades & Innovation Pipeline: Forthcoming releases of omni-channel payments software, enhanced fraud detection, and further M&A potential create a string of near-term upside events.
• Institutional and Cross-Border Adoption: Recent traction among larger merchants and financial institutions signals increasing penetration into lucrative payment verticals.
• Evolving Regulation and Compliance Readiness: Four’s agile compliance infrastructure reduces headline regulatory risk relative to most fintech peers.

Regulatory & DeFi/NFT Sectoral Upside

Macro adoption of digital assets and further integration of blockchain-based payment rails (as explored by Shift4 in R&D) open the door to new revenue steams should the regulatory environment remain constructive.

Investment Strategies by Time Horizon

Short-term (traders and tactical investors)

• Trade ahead of the Global Blue closing: Prices often react positively to deal finalisation, particularly in the payments sector where synergies can be immediately realised.
• Positioning on technical dips: The $84–$90 range provides both a technical and fundamental entry zone should volatility temporarily increase.

Medium-term (swing or event-driven investors)

• Riding the margin expansion: As synergy from Global Blue is realised, focus on Q3–Q4 2025 reporting as earnings catalysts.
• Accumulation phase: Gradual scaling in before anticipated upgrades and ecosystem integrations.

Long-term (strategic, fundamentals-based investors)

• Secular compounder thesis: Four’s multi-year revenue growth, strong management, and innovation pipeline make it a natural candidate for “buy and hold” within a diversified payments or fintech portfolio.
• Multiple upside triggers: From further European expansion to possible new M&A and continued industry digitisation, the fundamental “future optionality” baked into Four justifies a sustained overweight view.

Positioning Triggers

• Optimal Entry: On technical pullbacks toward support or pre-announced earnings/M&A updates.
• Rebalancing/Profit-Taking: At or near major resistance levels ($100.09 and above), especially after strong rallies post-catalyst.

Four Price Projections (2025–2029)

Is Now the Right Time to Consider Four?

Key Strengths Recap

• Strong multi-year growth in revenues, EPS, and payment volumes, outperforming peers with proven scalability in both US and European markets.
• Profound strategic execution, including the high-impact Global Blue acquisition, positions Four at the epicentre of luxury and high-margin payment channels.
• Integrated and innovative technology stack ensures ongoing differentiation, with a large cash reserve facilitating future expansion.
• Technical outlook reinforces accumulation likelihood, with price action coiling near key short-term supports and awaiting catalyst-driven breakout.
• Attractive relative valuation offers compelling asymmetry for investors who favour top-line growth and operational leverage in a secular upcycle.

Optimistic Scenario and Opportunity

As the payments sector undergoes a new phase of digitisation, Four appears poised to benefit from strong operational leverage, accelerated European expansion, and a sustained innovation pipeline. The projected price trajectory implies substantial capital appreciation potential. The stock's combination of deep liquidity, compounding earnings growth, and upcoming high-impact catalysts—especially the imminent Global Blue deal—strongly justify an increasingly renewed interest.

Four remains a high-volatility asset class that appears to offer excellent opportunities for dynamic, risk-managed investment. Recent momentum and structural strength highlight Four's unique positioning to generate robust returns, though selectivity and ongoing diligence remain essential due to evolving macro conditions.

Key technical levels to monitor going forward are 84 USD as immediate support and 100 USD as a primary resistance. The expected closure of the Global Blue transaction in Q3 2025 could serve as a decisive inflection point for Four’s future evolution.

How to buy an oven?

It’s simple and secure to buy the Four cryptocurrency online via a regulated platform. UK investors typically choose between two main methods: buying Four directly for spot ownership (where you hold real coins in a wallet), or trading Four through a CFD (Contract for Difference), allowing you to speculate on price movements without owning the asset itself. Both approaches have distinct advantages, risks, and fee structures. Below, we explain each method, with examples, so you can make an informed choice. For a comparative overview of trusted platforms, see the comparison table lower down this page.

Spot Purchase

Spot buying means purchasing Four directly on an online exchange and holding the actual tokens in your secure wallet. You become the true owner of your Four coins – your investment’s value changes in line with the market price. Spot platforms usually charge a fixed commission per transaction, often around 0.5% to 1%, plus a small flat fee (in GBP).

Example

Let’s say Four trades at $94.40 (about £74.33) per coin. With £1,000 (approx. $1,270), you could buy around 13.45 coins after factoring in an estimated £5 transaction fee.
- Amount invested: £1,000
- Coins acquired: ~13.45
- Transaction fee: £5

✔️ Profit scenario:
If the price of Four rises by 10%, your coins are now valued at £1,100.
- Result: You gain £100, or +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

Trading Four via CFD means speculating on its price change, rather than owning the actual coin. With a CFD, you can take leveraged positions (e.g., 5x your initial investment), amplifying both potential gains and losses. CFD providers typically make money from the "spread" (the difference between buy and sell prices), and may charge overnight financing fees if you hold your position after market hours.

Example

You invest £1,000 as margin and choose 5x leverage — this gives you a £5,000 exposure to Four.
- Initial margin: £1,000
- Notional exposure: £5,000 (5x leverage)

✔️ Profit scenario:
If Four’s price increases by 8%, your position rises by 8% × 5 = 40%.
- Result: You earn £400 profit on your £1,000 outlay (excluding spreads and possible overnight fees).

Key Advice Before Investing

Whatever approach you choose, always compare the fee structures, spreads, available features, and security standards of different platforms. Your optimal choice will depend on your investment goals, risk appetite, and experience level. To help you select the right platform, consult our comprehensive comparison further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying an oven

The latest news from the Oven

Shift4 Payments’ imminent acquisition of Global Blue solidifies a key European and UK retail payments foothold. With nearly 97% of Global Blue shares tendered and the transaction closing slated for Q3 2025, Shift4 is poised for significant expansion into the luxury retail and tax-free shopping segments, including the UK, which remains a hub for international tourism and high-value commerce. This move strategically positions Shift4 to leverage the UK’s world-leading retail and hospitality markets, especially as post-Brexit VAT-free shopping returns for international visitors. For UK-based analysts, this signals an accelerated market entry and broad-based relevance across premier British retail destinations.

Shift4 delivers robust Q1 2025 earnings, showing strong payment volume growth and an earnings beat surpassing analyst estimates. The company reported $848.3 million in revenue (up 19.9% year-over-year), gross revenue less network fees jumped 40%, and payment volume surged 35% compared to Q1 2024. Notably, earnings per share reached $1.07, vastly outperforming the $0.70 analyst target. For UK stakeholders, this underscores Shift4’s operational strength and scalability—relevant as the company grows its footprint in Europe, including potential future UK-local service offerings.

Recent technical signals and consensus analyst targets indicate constructive upside for Shift4’s trading environment. The current technical sentiment remains a buy, bolstered by the stock trading above both its 20- and 50-day moving averages, indicating positive short-term momentum. The analyst consensus target price of $114.26 offers more than 20% potential upside from current levels, reflecting ongoing confidence in the company’s strategy and forthcoming integration of European operations that could appeal to UK investors seeking exposure to growth-oriented fintech.

Leadership transition to Taylor Lauber as CEO marks a period of renewed strategic focus. Effective since 5 June 2025, the smooth transition from founder Jared Isaacman to new CEO Taylor Lauber, with Isaacman remaining as Executive Chairman, has been well-received, signalling stability at a pivotal time. This leadership shift occurs concurrently with the Global Blue acquisition, reinforcing Shift4’s commitment to its European expansion—a development likely to support local partnerships, regulatory engagement, and talent acquisition within the UK over the coming quarters.

Shift4’s deep cash reserves and strong return on equity provide resilience and capacity for UK-facing initiatives. With $1.17 billion in cash and a 29.87% return on equity, the company is well-capitalised to support additional growth, integration costs, and regional investment needs that may arise from entering complex and highly regulated markets such as the UK. This financial strength is a constructive signal for UK-based analysts and investors monitoring the company’s ability to scale and compete locally.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.